Tilray will release its Q4 and fiscal full-year 2018 results at market close today, March 18th. Cannabis investors will be watching closely, largely because the company promised to increase recreational sales in the quarter. This promise comes after Tilray did not make any recreational sales in Q3. At the time of writing, TLRY stock is starting the morning up 1.08%, trading at $73.28.
Tilray Q4 Results and TLRY Stock
In July 2018, Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) debuted on the Nasdaq Exchange, claiming the title of the first cannabis company to debut on a major exchange. Since then, TLRY stock has been on a rollercoaster, hitting an all-time closing high of $214.06 in September 2018. According to Yahoo Finance, the British Columbia-based company has a valuation of US$6.9 billion. And while that's all said and good, cannabis investors are going to be watching for a few things in the Tilray Q4 report, things that could make or break this valuation.
What are Investors Looking For?
1. Recreational Sales and Overall Revenue
There's no doubt cannabis investors will be looking to see if recreational sales had an impact on Tilray's Q4 revenue. According to The Motley Fool, analysts forecast revenue will be between $12.2 million and $18 million. The average estimate is close to $14.5 million. If it was to reach this, Tilray would see a 45% increase from the third quarter. Again, that's all well and good, but this level of growth is light compared to companies like Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) and Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB).
According to Owen Bennett, a Jefferies analyst, TLRY's "Canada medical share (core strength) is not in the top four." Bennett added that "recent consumer feedback is not inspiring."
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2. Influence of International Markets
Sure, Tilray has spent 2019 building out its medical cannabis operation in Europe, but analysts predict the company won't be influenced much by international markets in the fourth quarter of 2018. Then again, if analysts prove wrong, this could work in favor of TLRY stock.
3. Net Loss
Even though revenue is forecasted to grow, analysts are projecting the report will highlight another big net loss (it lost $0.20 per share in Q3). According to Motley Fool, Tilray's Q4 net loss may be $0.20 per share. At best, $0.06 per share. Similar to the influence of international cannabis markets, Tilray's Q4 net loss could influence the direction TLRY stock takes in after-hours trade.
Bulls and Bears
While Owen Bennett appears bearish on the company, Vivien Azer, Cowen analyst, is the opposite. Cowen maintains an "outperform" rating on shares of the company. She has a price target of $150.
Takeaway
What do you think the Tilray Q4 report will look like? Do you think Tilray recreational sales have ramped up? Will TLRY stock soar or plunge in after-hours trade? Let us know what you think in the comments below!
UPDATE: Check out the Tilray Q4 results, out now!
Featured image: Canva
